Nairobi/Brussels, 6 August 2002: A new round of technical and political negotiations between
Burundi’s government and rebel troops is scheduled to open in Dar-es-Salaam
today. However possibilities of postponement reflect the difficulties of the
process and the weak prospects that the South African-brokered talks will
result in a sustainable and all-inclusive ceasefire. The competing interests of
the army, government, rebel groups and neighbouring countries as well as
internal divisions within each camp are putting the entire peace process and
Burundi’s transition at risk.
ICG Africa Program Co-Director Fabienne Hara said: “Despite
the Arusha agreement in August 2000 and installation of a transition government
on 1 November 2001, the Burundian army and various rebel factions are still
fighting. A ceasefire is indispensable to complete negotiations and make the
Arusha framework viable”.
A new briefing paper from the International Crisis Group,
The Burundi Rebellion and the Ceasefire
Negotiations, provides a comprehensive analysis of the history and goals of
the rebel factions, and the regional entanglements of neighbouring states such
as Rwanda, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The main stumbling block in the current negotiations is
perceived to be the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People/National
Liberation Forces (PALIPEHUTU-FNL), which may become a target for sanctions if
it continues to insist it will only hold talks with the Burundian army on its
own terms.
However, there are others who may benefit if the peace
process fails. The Burundian army wants a decisive military campaign against
the rebels and is resistant to the reforms that would follow a negotiated
ceasefire. Tutsi and Hutu politicians who feel excluded from the Arusha power
sharing arrangement would like to see the process of political negotiations
reopened. The likelihood of a ceasefire in Burundi will also depend on whether
the power sharing and security agreements recently reached in the DRC hold.
In Burundi, under the terms of the Arusha agreement,
President Pierre Buyoya is due to hand over leadership to Vice-President
Domitien Ndayizeye after eighteen months of transition in May 2003, but this
may not happen if a ceasefire is not agreed soon. Many Buyoya backers, who
would lose considerable influence and economic advantage if the hand-over goes
ahead, would be pleased to see the agreement collapse.
ICG Central Africa Project Director Dr Francois Grignon said:
“At the heart of Burundi’s conflict is a crisis of governance. The laborious
difficulties of the ceasefire negotiations have time and again obscured the
fact that the talks are simply a stepping stone toward addressing the root
causes of the conflict. This is also not a conventional war, and the majority
of victims are civilians. Burundi’s peace process must become meaningful for
those who suffer daily from the fighting”.
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44.20.86.82.93.51
email: [email protected]
Ana Caprile (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536.00.70
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-408 8012
All ICG reports are available on our website www.crisisweb.org
