Nairobi/Brussels, 7 July 2003: Sudan’s peace process is entering its final, most difficult phase. As President George W. Bush begins his tour of Africa, he has an opportunity to help end one of the world’s longest-running and most destructive wars.
A new report
by the International Crisis Group (ICG), Sudan Endgame* says it is essential that the United States makes a clear commitment to its bilateral relationship with Sudan and to remain closely involved with the post-agreement process. In particular ICG urges the U.S. and other international actors to sequence the lifting of sanctions and provision of assistance on conclusion and implementation of the peace agreement.
ICG Special Adviser on Africa John Prendergast said: “The U.S. must put its bilateral relationship with the Sudan government on the table in the service of the peace deal. Without serious U.S. commitments and high-level engagement, a lasting deal is less likely. With them, peace has a chance in Sudan”.
The government in Khartoum and the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) in the South took an important step with the Machakos Protocol a year ago – effectively trading a southern self-determination referendum for sharia law in the North. However, a second such deal is needed if outstanding issues such as the status of the national capital, the presidency and security arrangements are to be resolved.
“The time has come for a second 'grand bargain' between the government and SPLA”, said ICG President Gareth Evans. “Such a bargain will require a set of major tradeoffs – or new solutions – that meets the bottom lines of the parties, protects earlier agreements, and creates incentives for the implementation of the accord”.
The key to a sustainable agreement will be whether it can prioritise the preservation of unity – and address conflict areas outside the South. A minimalist deal can be reached that stops the war for now and puts the South on a fast track to independence. However such an agreement would be systematically undermined by key actors in the ruling party in Khartoum and likely to lead to the resumption of war.
Despite the imperative to stress unity, independence for the South must remain a valid and acceptable possible outcome of the referendum, as a fundamental confidence building measure for southerners to give a unified state a chance. To avoid future conflict, the parties should also agree now on provisions that would come into effect should the South vote for independence after the six-year interim period.
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The International Crisis Group (ICG) is an independent,
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continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to
prevent and resolve deadly conflict.
