Osh/Brussels, 8 June 2001: Poverty in certain localities of Central Asia is now so severe that it poses a serious threat to stability. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan face complex economic and political challenges; if they continue to be ignored by the international community and mismanaged by national governments, increasing militancy, violent unrest and even attempts to overthrow current regimes can be expected.
The International Crisis Group today publishes a detailed study of overlooked poverty and social unrest in the three countries. Incubators of Conflict: Central Asia’s Localised Poverty and Social Unrest, was compiled by ICG analysts based in the Ferghana Valley – a cross-border area deeply affected by poverty, overcrowding, falling agriculture prices, Islamic militancy, drug trafficking and increasing resentment of the ruling elite.
ICG’s Central Asia Project Director, Dr John Schoeberlein said: “Poverty and economic distress are not likely causes of conflict in themselves. But there is a sufficient bedrock of political grievance, economic insecurity and mistrust that a localised incident such as a riot, border clash or incursion of militants – all of which have occurred already – could rapidly transform into widespread violence, domestic civil unrest or even interstate military confrontation.”
Collecting accurate data is extremely difficult in Central Asia. ICG has combined published data with its own field investigation work to present this comprehensive analysis. Four localities receive particular focus: Batken province in Kyrgyzstan (scene of recent militant incursions), the Gharm region and Badakhshan Province in Tajikistan (devastated by Civil War and now on major drug trafficking routes), and Uzbekistan’s Namangan Province in the Ferghana Valley. The report provides recommendations to the three national governments, international donors and other organisations for minimising the risk of conflict.
The post-Soviet collapse of the economy in these localities is even more severe than the effect of the Great Depression of 1929 was on the West. In parts of Kyrgyzstan more than 80 per cent of the population lives in poverty – in 1988 the figure was 12 per cent. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are similarly affected.
“It is wrong to assume that external factors such as war in Afghanistan, international terrorism or drug cartels pose the most serious risk of conflict”, said Dr Schoeberlein. “The essential political problem is a crisis of domestic authority, and a growing gap between rich and poor. The wealth generated by privatisation and the region’s mineral and oil resources has been captured by a narrow urban elite – delivering nothing to the rest of the population. Foreign donors should ensure that they travel further than the region’s capitals when assessing humanitarian and development needs.”
