Baghdad/Amman/Brussels, 11 June 2003: The U.S. administration in Baghdad, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) is facing a serious and potentially dangerous credibility gap. A new ICG briefing paper, Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock* says the CPA must urgently address Iraqis’ immediate concerns – personal security, the restoration of basic amenities (electricity, cooking gas, water) and social welfare (health services and wages). If unable to do so, and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out.
ICG Middle East Project Director Joost Hiltermann said: “The CPA is banking on the prowess of its military forces, the talents of its hard-working staff and a bit of luck to overcome both the security challenge and the many logistical hurdles it faces before the summer heat descends. If the gamble fails, its legitimacy in the eyes of Iraqis may suffer a defeat that could prove difficult to reverse and deal a serious, if not fatal blow to the political transition that today still holds out the prospect of significant material change in the lives of all Iraqis”.
Even senior American civilians in Baghdad expressed their concern to ICG at the near-total lack of advance preparation for the post war needs of Iraqi society. Moreover, U.S. officials are virtually cut off from the society they are supposed to be helping back onto its feet. Permitted to move about the city only with military escorts, the CPA communicates with the Iraqi population by summary edicts issued from behind the locked gates of a vast former Saddam Hussein palace. These have been widely met with a mixture of outrage, resignation, puzzlement and a profound sense of disempowerment.
The 16 May proclamation on the “disestablishment” of the Baath Party was applauded in some quarters, but was more widely criticised for its sweeping nature and disregard for due process. A more recent order disbanding the army and other security forces threatens to put hundreds of thousands of mostly young men on the streets without a serious prospect of work, or the promise of a pension. Many of these, it is feared, will end up joining the gangs of thieves that roam the streets, or forming the nuclei for future armed resistance to what is already referred to as the American occupation.
ICG Middle East Program Director Robert Malley said: “Should perceptions on the ground not rapidly change, the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well”.
ICG urges the CPA to implement a number of specific steps to restore public order and essential services, repair basic infrastructure, improve its media capabilities and public profile, reconsider the sweeping de-Baathification edict and empower Iraqis by handing over day-to-day administration and accelerating elections at the local and institutional level.
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44 20 7981 0330 [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536 00 65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website:
www.crisisweb.org
The International Crisis Group (ICG) is an independent,
non-profit, multinational organisation, with over 90 staff members on five continents,
working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent
and resolve deadly conflict.
