Johannesburg/Brussels, 14 June 2002: While Zimbabwe has slipped off the radar for most policy makers and the media, its crisis is deepening. Party-to-party talks between the ruling ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change initially made progress but collapsed in mid-May. ZANU PF withdrew after the MDC refused to drop its legal challenge to the results of the March presidential election.

ZANU-PF and the government are still systematically using violence to punish the MDC and civil society, and compel them to accept the flawed election results. Food is becoming scarcer and with regional drought compounding the land seizure crisis, UN agencies warn of possible famine.

Now serious internal fissures threaten to radicalise the MDC. Its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has begun to speak of switching to mass public protests within weeks if there is no movement toward new elections. All indications are that this would produce a sharp ZANU-PF response and set off a cycle of much more serious domestic conflict. It would send more refugees across borders and speed the economic decline. In the absence of any realistic alternative, reviving the party-to-party talks is the most promising avenue for defusing the immediate crisis.

A new ICG Report, Zimbabwe: What Next?, says the international response has been mixed and inadequate. ICG Africa Program Co-Director John Prendergast said: "This is an example of a serious African issue gaining episodic high level Western attention and rhetoric, but no sustained policy follow-up. The policies of the EU and U.S. continue to be all bark and no bite".

South Africa and Nigeria have the most real leverage on Mugabe and they need to become much more assertive in encouraging ZANU-PF to return to the negotiating table. Both ZANU-PF and the MDC should be pressured to pursue genuine compromise.

The EU, U.S. and other friends of Zimbabwe can also help. They should toughen and extend targeted sanctions and make clear there will be no progress on NEPAD at the G-8 summit on 26-27 June unless African leaders put more pressure on ZANU-PF. The UK in particular should pledge anew to contribute significantly, in the context of an overall settlement, to land reform in Zimbabwe - which is a genuine issue however cynically it has been abused by the ruling party.

John Prendergast said: "To avoid the likely degeneration into wider conflict, Zimbabwe's neighbours and the broader international community must pressure ZANU-PF to end the violence and return to the negotiating table. The objective should be some form of a transitional administration which reforms the constitution and prepares for new elections".