Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?

Nairobi/Brussels, 24 September 2003: The next few weeks will go far to determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea resume a course toward war – which took some 100,000 lives between 1998 and 2000 – or solidify their peace agreement. Ethiopia must decide whether to allow demarcation of the border to begin in October 2003, even though the international Boundary Commission, set up under the Algiers agreement to end the fighting, has ruled that the town of Badme, the original flashpoint of the war, is on the Eritrean side.

A new report published today by the International Crisis Group, Ethiopia and Eritrea: War or Peace?* calls for urgent international engagement, particularly from the United States, the African Union, and the European Union, in order to encourage and support Ethiopia’s acceptance of the final stage of implementation and to assist both parties in devising a package of measures that can reduce the humanitarian costs of border adjustments and otherwise make implementation of the demarcation more politically palatable.

ICG Special Adviser on Africa John Prendergast said: “Demarcation of the border is a crucial component of the peace process and must be followed to its conclusion. If either side is permitted to go back on its commitments, it could set in motion a rapid deterioration of the atmosphere, and a small incident could easily escalate out of control”.

The two warring states agreed at Algiers in 2000 to establish the Boundary Commission and accept its judgment as final and binding. The Commission made its ruling in April 2002 and announced in July 2003 that physical demarcation on the ground should begin in October. Tension has been rising as a result of increasing incidents in the neutral zone patrolled by a UN peacekeeping mission (UNMEE). Domestic hardliners are putting both governments under pressure.

The urgency of resolving the border deadlock is all the greater because the two countries face massive humanitarian crises. Two thirds of Eritrea’s population need food assistance. UNICEF warns that Ethiopia’s social services, governance, and safety nets may collapse in the next decade under the burden of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and its own continuing food crisis.

ICG urges the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea to implement the peace agreement promptly and fully; not doing so would risk the resumption of conflict there and the undermining of agreements throughout Africa. ICG also calls on the U.S., EU, and AU to work separately with both parties in devising creative ways to help implement the Boundary Commission’s decision.

“Though the Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation is a classic candidate for conflict prevention, not least because it has been unfolding – or unravelling – in slow motion, little has yet been done”, said Mr Prendergast. “The international community risks demonstrating again that it only takes notice of Africa once war has erupted and people are dying”.