Kabul/Brussels, 16 May 2002: The hopes of almost all Afghans, and the world at large, that the peace process in Afghanistan will continue to move forward are focussed on the Emergency Loya Jirga (Grand National Council), to be held in Kabul, 10-16 June. However the process is not receiving the support it needs. In a new briefing paper, The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?, the International Crisis Group warns that expectations are unreasonably high, and the danger of missteps is grave.

International officials, especially the UN Mission running the process, are devoting much attention to procedural fairness, especially delegate selection but too little attention to ensuring a broadly acceptable outcome. If the Loya Jirga does not carefully rebalance power arrangements made in Bonn six months ago while heavy fighting still raged between Coalition and Taliban/al-Qaeda forces, the country's power brokers may reject the result, and fragile stability could dissolve into new hostilities.

Key questions include the status of the former king and the composition of the new Transitional Administration government, especially the balance between northerners, mainly ethnic Tajiks, who were rewarded at Bonn for their anti-Taliban role, and the largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns, who believe they are being disadvantaged.

Security, resources and an international community sometimes working at cross-purposes are key problems identified by ICG. An increase in factional fighting must be addressed both diplomatically and militarily. An international security presence needs to be deployed to regional centres for the second stage of the delegate selection process, 21 May-5 June. Unfortunately, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is restricted by its participating states to Kabul, a decision causing many Afghans to question international community commitment to long term stability.

Logistical support is also insufficient. Aircraft promised months ago to send staff to remote areas are not operational. Lack of information and misinformation are rife. Radio coverage is limited, and locally-controlled partisan stations dominate that are unlikely to tackle the most contentious issues in depth. The Commission in charge of preparing the Loya Jirga has not yet published the rules of procedure, and uncertainty exists even about what issues the delegates can decide.

"Fundamentally", said ICG analyst Alexander Thier, "the Loya Jirga should help move authority away from warlords into national and local government structures. However, that will take years. Next month's Loya Jirga must take pragmatic steps to keep the peace process alive. Re-balancing power in Kabul is vital, but anything too dramatic could unhinge the entire process. Compromise between existing power-brokers is essential, and the international community must use its political and military influence in a unified fashion, to push forward, towards stability. Otherwise matters could come apart fairly quickly".