INTRODUCTION
This ICG report is one
of three published simultaneously, proposing to the parties and the wider
international community a comprehensive plan to settle the Israeli-Arab
conflict. In the first report, Getting to a Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement, we argue
that approaches that rely on the gradual restoration of trust, the prior
cessation of violence, fundamental Palestinian reform, or various incremental
political steps being taken are all inadequate to alter the underlying dynamic
that is fuelling the conflict. As much as we would wish otherwise, we fear that
the appalling resort to terrorist violence against Israelis, and the large-scale
Israeli attacks that are destroying all hope on the Palestinian side, will not
be stopped by these means.
Instead, we recommend an
approach that, while persisting in the effort to reach a cease-fire, improve the
situation on the ground, reform Palestinian institutions and rebuild their
shattered economy, seeks to deal with the ultimate political issues up front.
Our conclusion is that the international community, led by the United States,
should initiate a comprehensive settlement strategy. This should involve not
only the Israeli-Palestinian track, although this is obviously at the time of
publication the most immediate and serious problem requiring major attention,
but the Israel-Syria and Israel-Lebanon tracks as well, which if left unresolved
will inhibit the necessary comprehensive reconciliation between Israel and the
Arab world.
In the second report, How
a Comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian Settlement Would Look, we spell out in
detail our proposals for the content of both a bilateral agreement between
Israelis and Palestinians and an associated multilateral agreement whose core
signatories, in addition to the parties, would be the U.S., EU, Russia and the
UN (the “Quartet”) and the key regional supporters of the bilateral
agreement – Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. ICG has been engaged in intensive
discussions with many Israelis and Palestinians for a number of months, as well
as many others in the international community, and the terms of our proposed
bilateral settlement represent our best assessment of what can be accepted by
both sides as fair, comprehensive and lasting.
In this third report, Israel,
Syria and Lebanon – How Comprehensive Peace Settlements Would Look, we
make a similar best assessment of what fair and comprehensive deals on the
Syrian and Lebanese tracks should look like. Resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is tied in numerous ways to resolution of the
Israeli-Syrian and Israeli-Lebanese disputes, the other two outstanding
conflicts between the Arab world and Israel. Left unresolved, these disputes
threaten to destabilise the region as a whole. Cross-border attacks by the
Lebanese Hezbollah, supported and influenced by Damascus, risk provoking
large-scale Israeli retaliation and, in the event of miscalculation on either
side, a possible escalation toward outright warfare. Syria also harbours several
radical Palestinian organizations and provides assistance to similar Palestinian
groups based in refugee camps in Lebanon and involved in violent attacks against
Israelis. The presence of several hundred thousand Palestinian refugees whom
Lebanon adamantly refuses to permanently resettle adds another source of
tension. Perpetuation of the Israeli-Syrian conflict means continuation of the
alliance between Tehran and Damascus, raising genuine concerns in Israel. In
contrast, a peace agreement with Syria would greatly enhance Israel’s
strategic posture vis-à-vis countries like Iran and Iraq.
Finally, the prospect of
normalisation with the Arab world is a key element in persuading the Israeli
public to accept the compromises necessary to reach a permanent status agreement
with the Palestinians. But without an Israeli-Syrian settlement, it is hard to
imagine that there can be broad Arab reconciliation with Israel, no matter what
happens on the Palestinian front. In order for there to be comprehensive
reconciliation with the Arab world, in other words, it is a reasonable
assumption that there will need to be comprehensive peace deals.
In sum, an
international initiative on the Middle East holds the greatest chance of success
if it tackles the conflict in all of its dimensions – Palestinian, Syrian and
Lebanese. This report, together with its companions, shows how this might be
done.
Amman/Washington/Brussels, 16 July 2002
